{"id":2970,"date":"2026-04-22T10:03:18","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T10:03:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onlyguider.com\/blog\/?p=2970"},"modified":"2026-04-22T11:10:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T11:10:35","slug":"u-s-onlyfans-usage-plummets-28-5-in-q1-2026-as-americans-turn-on-for-ai-porn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/onlyguider.com\/blog\/u-s-onlyfans-usage-plummets-28-5-in-q1-2026-as-americans-turn-on-for-ai-porn\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S OnlyFans Usage Plummets 28.5% in Q1 2026 as Americans Turn On for AI Porn"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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For four years, OnlyFans in the United States has only gone one way: up. More subscribers. More creators. More spend. 2025 was the peak \u2014 $2.63 billion<\/strong> in US fan spend, 1.29 million American creators<\/strong> sharing $1.68 billion<\/strong> in earnings, and a creator economy big enough to quietly contribute $338 million<\/strong> in federal and state taxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Q1 2026 may have just broken the streak \u2014 and hard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OnlyGuider’s latest cross-dataset analysis shows that in the first three months of 2026, US OnlyFans search demand collapsed by 28.5% year-on-year<\/strong>. Every single US state went down. Every single one. Some states \u2014 Tennessee, North Dakota, Kentucky, Alabama \u2014 fell by more than 40%. In cities like Memphis, Virginia Beach and Nashville, the Q1 drop was over 45%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But critically, Onlyguider reveals that over the trailing 12 months, US searches for AI porn rose 76% year-on-year<\/strong> \u2014 and +1,376% over the past three years<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The two trends are moving in opposite directions, at high speed, in the same places at the same time. And unlike previous “is porn changing?” headlines \u2014 this time the numbers come with a dollar sign attached. If Q1 2026 holds for the rest of the year, the US OnlyFans market shrinks from $2.63B to $1.88B<\/strong> \u2014 a $750 million<\/strong> difference. Creator revenue drops from $1.68B to $1.21B<\/strong> \u2014 a $481 million<\/strong> difference. The IRS and state treasuries lose around $97 million<\/strong> in creator tax contribution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not the end of OnlyFans. Not by any stretch. It’s still one of the biggest consumer platforms on the internet and a $2B+ economy even on the base case. But is it the beginning of the end?<\/strong> That’s the question Q1 2026 just put on the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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TL;DR \u2014 The Q1 2026 Picture<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • US OnlyFans search demand Q1 2026:<\/strong> \u221228.5% YoY<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • States down on OnlyFans in Q1 2026:<\/strong> 50 out of 50<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Cities with a double-digit OnlyFans drop:<\/strong> All 164 in our panel<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • US AI porn search demand:<\/strong> +76% trailing-12-month YoY<\/strong> (and +1,376%<\/strong> over 3 years)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Cities where AI porn searches grew AND OnlyFans fell:<\/strong> 140 of 164<\/strong> (85.4%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Correlation between OF decline and AI rise across cities:<\/strong> Statistically significant (Pearson r = \u22120.42, p < 0.001)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Worldwide sense-check (Google Ads data):<\/strong> OnlyFans searches \u221223.9%<\/strong> Q1 2026 YoY globally \u2014 the US decline is not isolated<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Potential 2026 US OnlyFans spend (if Q1 trend holds):<\/strong> $1.88B<\/strong> \u2014 a $750M<\/strong> difference vs 2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Potential 2026 creator revenue difference:<\/strong> \u2212$481M<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Potential creator tax contribution difference:<\/strong> \u2212$97M<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • US moms earning on OnlyFans in 2025:<\/strong> 115,893<\/strong> \u2014 of whom ~37,897<\/strong> rely on OnlyFans as sole household income<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
    \n\n\n\n

    What Just Happened<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    From January to March 2026, OnlyGuider tracked search demand for OnlyFans across every US state and the 164 largest US cities. The results were, frankly, not subtle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Every single state was down.<\/strong> The best-performing state in Q1 2026 was New Hampshire \u2014 and it was still down 7.7%<\/strong> year-on-year. The worst-performing state, Tennessee, was down 50.6%<\/strong>. The national average came in at \u221228.5%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This does not happen. Not in a platform that spent four years climbing. Not across 100% of a country simultaneously. Not in a quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    At the city level the story was even sharper. Every single major US city we track (population 250,000+)<\/strong> was down on OnlyFans in Q1 2026. In the top decliners alone \u2014 Memphis, Virginia Beach, Nashville \u2014 Q1 drops exceeded 45%. Seven major cities dropped by more than 40%. The places we’d expect to lead \u2014 Atlanta, Miami, Las Vegas, Orlando \u2014 were among the biggest casualties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Top 10 States \u2014 Biggest Q1 2026 OnlyFans decline<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    State<\/th>Q1 OnlyFans YoY<\/th>2025 OnlyFans spend<\/th>Potential 2026 spend difference<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Tennessee<\/td>-50.6%<\/td>$36.3M<\/td>\u2212$18.4M<\/td><\/tr>
    North Dakota<\/td>-41.5%<\/td>$8.6M<\/td>\u2212$3.6M<\/td><\/tr>
    Georgia<\/td>-38.0%<\/td>$87.4M<\/td>\u2212$33.2M<\/td><\/tr>
    Iowa<\/td>-37.9%<\/td>$28.0M<\/td>\u2212$10.6M<\/td><\/tr>
    South Dakota<\/td>-37.7%<\/td>$6.9M<\/td>\u2212$2.6M<\/td><\/tr>
    Idaho<\/td>-37.7%<\/td>$12.7M<\/td>\u2212$4.8M<\/td><\/tr>
    South Carolina<\/td>-37.5%<\/td>$36.0M<\/td>\u2212$13.5M<\/td><\/tr>
    Nevada<\/td>-33.8%<\/td>$32.4M<\/td>\u2212$11.0M<\/td><\/tr>
    Florida<\/td>-33.7%<\/td>$159.6M<\/td>\u2212$53.8M<\/td><\/tr>
    West Virginia<\/td>-33.1%<\/td>$13.0M<\/td>\u2212$4.3M<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Top 10 Cities \u2014 Biggest Q1 2026 OnlyFans decline<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Major US cities, population 250,000+<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    City<\/th>State<\/th>Q1 OnlyFans YoY<\/th>Q1 2025 spend<\/th>Q1 2026 spend difference<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Memphis<\/td>Tennessee<\/td>-50.8%<\/td>$1.12M<\/td>\u2212$569K<\/td><\/tr>
    Virginia Beach<\/td>Virginia<\/td>-49.1%<\/td>$1.72M<\/td>\u2212$847K<\/td><\/tr>
    Nashville<\/td>Tennessee<\/td>-47.5%<\/td>$2.51M<\/td>\u2212$1.19M<\/td><\/tr>
    Fort Wayne<\/td>Indiana<\/td>-45.4%<\/td>$944K<\/td>\u2212$428K<\/td><\/tr>
    Cincinnati<\/td>Ohio<\/td>-41.5%<\/td>$2.58M<\/td>\u2212$1.07M<\/td><\/tr>
    Greensboro<\/td>North Carolina<\/td>-41.5%<\/td>$631K<\/td>\u2212$262K<\/td><\/tr>
    Atlanta<\/td>Georgia<\/td>-41.4%<\/td>$7.03M<\/td>\u2212$2.91M<\/td><\/tr>
    Detroit<\/td>Michigan<\/td>-38.0%<\/td>$3.64M<\/td>\u2212$1.38M<\/td><\/tr>
    Charlotte<\/td>North Carolina<\/td>-38.0%<\/td>$3.64M<\/td>\u2212$1.38M<\/td><\/tr>
    St. Louis<\/td>Missouri<\/td>-38.0%<\/td>$2.43M<\/td>\u2212$925K<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    And then we looked at what else changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

    AI Porn Just Had the Quarter of Its Life<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    While OnlyFans was falling in every US state, AI porn was rising in every US state \u2014 and doing so at a pace that, for anyone not paying close attention, probably came as a surprise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    US searches for “AI porn” rose 76% year-on-year over the trailing 12 months.<\/strong> That sounds like a big number. In context, it’s even bigger \u2014 because AI porn search demand has now grown +1,376% over the past three years<\/strong>, with no quarter of meaningful decline since early 2022. This is a linear-looking growth curve based on OnlyGuider’s analysis of quarterly US AI porn search demand from Q1 2022 through Q1 2026 \u2014 four straight years with no meaningful reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Some states saw triple-digit increases:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Top 10 States \u2014 Biggest Q1 2026 AI porn increase<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    State<\/th>Q1 AI porn YoY<\/th>AI porn searches per 10k<\/th>Q1 OnlyFans YoY<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Wyoming<\/td>+165.2%<\/td>401.6<\/td>-28.4%<\/td><\/tr>
    Rhode Island<\/td>+105.9%<\/td>243.6<\/td>-18.2%<\/td><\/tr>
    Nevada<\/td>+104.8%<\/td>300.5<\/td>-33.8%<\/td><\/tr>
    California<\/td>+92.4%<\/td>311.6<\/td>-23.7%<\/td><\/tr>
    South Dakota<\/td>+92.2%<\/td>257.4<\/td>-37.7%<\/td><\/tr>
    New York<\/td>+90.7%<\/td>279.6<\/td>-23.8%<\/td><\/tr>
    Maine<\/td>+81.0%<\/td>261.2<\/td>-23.8%<\/td><\/tr>
    South Carolina<\/td>+80.0%<\/td>222.3<\/td>-37.5%<\/td><\/tr>
    Arizona<\/td>+78.3%<\/td>332.9<\/td>-23.9%<\/td><\/tr>
    New Jersey<\/td>+77.0%<\/td>208.2<\/td>-28.5%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    In major cities, the picture got wild. Newark and Buffalo<\/strong> both posted AI porn search increases of +400% or more<\/strong> year-on-year, and Milwaukee, Tulsa and Nashville<\/strong> all more than tripled. Dozens of major US cities (population 250,000+) doubled their AI porn search volume in twelve months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Top 10 Cities \u2014 Biggest Q1 2026 AI porn increase<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Major US cities, population 250,000+<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    City<\/th>State<\/th>Q1 AI porn YoY<\/th>AI porn searches per 10k<\/th>Q1 OnlyFans YoY<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Newark<\/td>New Jersey<\/td>+470.0%<\/td>776<\/td>-7.9%<\/td><\/tr>
    Buffalo<\/td>New York<\/td>+427.8%<\/td>1,980<\/td>-23.2%<\/td><\/tr>
    Milwaukee<\/td>Wisconsin<\/td>+217.7%<\/td>526<\/td>-28.5%<\/td><\/tr>
    Tulsa<\/td>Oklahoma<\/td>+210.7%<\/td>358<\/td>-34.1%<\/td><\/tr>
    Nashville<\/td>Tennessee<\/td>+194.4%<\/td>445<\/td>-47.5%<\/td><\/tr>
    Raleigh<\/td>North Carolina<\/td>+186.4%<\/td>480<\/td>-22.8%<\/td><\/tr>
    Cleveland<\/td>Ohio<\/td>+174.1%<\/td>768<\/td>-28.8%<\/td><\/tr>
    Mesa<\/td>Arizona<\/td>+166.7%<\/td>365<\/td>-33.2%<\/td><\/tr>
    St. Petersburg<\/td>Florida<\/td>+155.0%<\/td>383<\/td>-38.0%<\/td><\/tr>
    Louisville<\/td>Kentucky<\/td>+153.1%<\/td>494<\/td>-28.5%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    And the cities where AI porn search is now most intense on a per-capita basis \u2014 regardless of growth rate \u2014 read like a map of America’s modern urban economy:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Top 10 Cities \u2014 Highest AI porn intensity (searches per 10,000 residents, Q1 2026)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Major US cities, population 250,000+<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    City<\/th>State<\/th>AI porn searches per 10k<\/th>Q1 AI porn YoY<\/th>Q1 OnlyFans YoY<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Atlanta<\/td>Georgia<\/td>2,345<\/td>+68.7%<\/td>-41.4%<\/td><\/tr>
    Seattle<\/td>Washington<\/td>2,320<\/td>+88.1%<\/td>-12.5%<\/td><\/tr>
    Buffalo<\/td>New York<\/td>1,980<\/td>+427.8%<\/td>-23.2%<\/td><\/tr>
    Denver<\/td>Colorado<\/td>1,851<\/td>+131.7%<\/td>-18.0%<\/td><\/tr>
    Minneapolis<\/td>Minnesota<\/td>1,655<\/td>+119.3%<\/td>-23.9%<\/td><\/tr>
    Miami<\/td>Florida<\/td>1,496<\/td>+82.8%<\/td>-37.6%<\/td><\/tr>
    St. Louis<\/td>Missouri<\/td>1,283<\/td>+90.5%<\/td>-38.0%<\/td><\/tr>
    Pittsburgh<\/td>Pennsylvania<\/td>1,170<\/td>+128.8%<\/td>-6.9%<\/td><\/tr>
    Orlando<\/td>Florida<\/td>1,131<\/td>+80.0%<\/td>-37.7%<\/td><\/tr>
    Dallas<\/td>Texas<\/td>1,031<\/td>+106.2%<\/td>-37.6%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Atlanta, Seattle, Denver, Minneapolis, Miami, St. Louis, Dallas \u2014 these aren’t fringe places. These are major metros, and a meaningful share of their residents are now searching Google for AI porn every quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

    The Left-Right Combo: These Two Things Are Happening in the Same Places<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Here’s where the story gets genuinely interesting \u2014 and here’s where we stop calling it a coincidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In 140 out of 164<\/strong> of the largest US cities (85.4%), OnlyFans search went down<\/em> in Q1 2026 while<\/em> AI porn search went up<\/em>. In all 50 states<\/strong>, the same pattern held.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    When we ran a formal statistical test \u2014 Pearson correlation on the per-capita change in each metric \u2014 we got a result of r = \u22120.42, p < 0.001<\/strong> across 164 cities. In plain English: the cities where OnlyFans fell hardest were, with high statistical confidence, also the cities where AI porn rose fastest. When we excluded the 25 states with age-verification laws on the books (which could have been a confounding factor), the relationship still held: r = \u22120.28, p = 0.015<\/strong> across the remaining 76 cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We want to be careful here. Correlation is not causation. We are not saying every lost OnlyFans subscriber became an AI porn user. What we are saying is that the two trends are moving in opposite directions, at the same time, in the same places, across the entire United States<\/strong> \u2014 and the data says that is not random.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A word on age-verification laws:<\/strong> 25 US states now have age-verification laws in force, and Pornhub is blocked in 23 of them. OnlyFans is not blocked anywhere. The platform already collects government-issued ID during creator onboarding, which makes it structurally compliant with Louisiana Act 440, Texas HB 1181, Florida HB 3 and similar statutes. We tested whether AI porn growth was higher in AV states than non-AV states. It wasn’t \u2014 the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.39). This is not a story about porn laws. It’s a story about technology substitution playing out nationwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

    This Isn’t Just Happening in America<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    OnlyGuider’s Wrapped 2025<\/strong> report, published November 2025 and anchored to Fenix International Ltd’s filed accounts, documented OnlyFans’ continued global revenue growth through 2025 \u2014 from $6.6 billion in 2024 to $7.2 billion in 2025<\/strong>, a 9% increase. In that report, the US was characterised as a “mature giant” \u2014 stable, high-volume, modest growth. That was the picture as of end-of-year 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Q1 2026 is the first quarter in which the search-demand side of that story appears to have turned. We pulled Google Ads search-volume data for the term “onlyfans” worldwide<\/strong> for Q1 2026 and compared it to Q1 2025:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Worldwide OnlyFans searches<\/th>Q1 2025<\/th>Q1 2026<\/th>YoY<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Q1 total<\/strong> (Jan\u2013Mar)<\/td>119.9M<\/td>91.2M<\/strong><\/td>\u221223.9%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Revenue in 2025 was up \u2014 that much is anchored to Fenix’s filings. But search demand is what drives next year’s revenue<\/strong>, and the Q1 2026 worldwide signal shows the same directional break we’re seeing at the US level. The US decline we’ve documented is not isolated to one country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This is the distinction that matters: 2025 was a growth year on revenue. Q1 2026 is the first quarter where the demand side broke.<\/strong> Whether that’s a single-quarter correction or the start of a genuine turn is what the rest of 2026 will tell us. But it is no longer a purely American story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

    What This Means in Dollars \u2014 US OnlyFans Spend in 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Here is the straightforward part. If US OnlyFans search demand in Q1 2026 is down 28.5%, that’s fan engagement pulling back. Fan engagement is what drives spend. So if that Q1 trend holds for the full year, US OnlyFans spend follows the same curve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Applied to OnlyGuider’s 2025 baseline of $2.63 billion<\/strong>, three scenarios bracket the outcome:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2026 scenario<\/th>Potential US OnlyFans spend<\/th>Difference vs 2025<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Optimistic (\u221215%)<\/td>$2.24B<\/td>\u2212$394M<\/td><\/tr>
    Base case (Q1 holds, \u221228.5%)<\/strong><\/td>$1.88B<\/strong><\/td>\u2212$750M<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
    Pessimistic (\u221240%)<\/td>$1.58B<\/td>\u2212$1.05B<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Under the base case, that’s $750 million<\/strong> of US consumer spend that was going into the adult creator economy in 2025 \u2014 and is now, on current trends, going somewhere else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    At state level the dollar difference is obviously biggest in the biggest markets:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Top 10 States \u2014 Potential 2026 OnlyFans Spend Difference<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    See Top 10 States table above \u2014 California, Texas, Florida, New York and Illinois alone account for roughly $283M of the potential 2026 spend difference.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But the pain is everywhere. Every state in our full state appendix below is on track for a 2026 spend decline if current trends continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

    What This Means for US Creators \u2014 The 28.5% Pay Cut Nobody’s Talking About<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Here’s the point that deserves more attention than it’s getting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Creator revenue on OnlyFans follows fan spend. So when fan spend in a state drops 28.5%, creator revenue in that state drops 28.5% too.<\/strong> The math is almost one-to-one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    OnlyGuider’s 2026 U.S. OnlyFans Creator Census<\/strong> established that in 2025:<\/p>\n\n\n\n